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RVIA Reports Wholesale Shipments for September

 
The Recreational Vehicle Industry Association reported wholesale shipments of 17,000 units in September, up 1.8% from the same period in 2010. Year to date, wholesale shipments are up 3.1% from the same period last year. September marks the resumption in growth of year-on year-shipments . Our forecast error in September was 5,900 units or 34.8% above actual wholesale shipments. Year-to-date, our cumulative forecast error is 46,900 units or 23.5% over reported shipments. We attribute the shortfall to the recent deterioration in the economy. Our forecast wrongly assumed continued growth. As such, we expect that actual unit shipments will continue to come up short of our forecast.

RV shipments in 2011 are expected to rise to 260,200 units, an increase of 7.4% from the 2010 total, according to a forecast by RV industry analyst and director of consumer surveys at the University of Michigan, Dr. Richard Curtin. The 2010 gain in shipments were mainly due to restocking dealer lots, but 2011 increases will reflect improved retail sales, according to Curtin. RV sales will face continued challenges because of slow growth in jobs and incomes, continued weakness in the housing market, and credit market that is slow to improve. The full report may be found here.
 
RV Wholesale Unit Shipments 2011
Wholesale Unit Shipments 2011 Q1     Q2     Q3     Q4     YTD
(thousands) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total
Motorized                          
Motorhome (Class A)                 1.1            1.1            1.4            1.1            1.1            1.1            0.9            1.1       1.0                 9.9
Van Conversion (Class B)                 0.1            0.2            0.1            0.2            0.2            0.2            0.1            0.2       0.2                 1.5
Mini-Motorhome (Class C)                 0.8            0.8            1.3            1.5            1.4            1.0            0.7            0.6       0.5                 8.6
Motorized Total                 2.0            2.1            2.8            2.8            2.7            2.3            1.7            1.9       1.7         -           -            -           20.0
Towables                          
Travel Trailers               10.4          11.8          17.1          14.6          16.3          16.4          10.9          13.2      10.1             120.8
5th Wheels                 4.3            4.8            5.8            5.4            6.9            6.4            4.2            4.9       4.2               46.9
Folding Camper                 0.9            1.0            1.4            1.5            1.5            1.3            0.9            0.8       0.7               10.0
Truck Campers                 0.2            0.1            0.4            0.3            0.2            0.3            0.3            0.2       0.3                 2.3
Towables Total               15.8          17.7          24.7          21.8          24.9          24.4          16.3          19.1      15.3         -           -            -         180.0
Total Units               17.8          19.8          27.5          24.6          27.6          26.7          18.0          21.0      17.0         -           -            -         200.0
Source: RVIA 2011                          
                           
Wholesale Unit Shipments 2011 Q1     Q2     Q3     Q4     YTD
(thousands) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total
Motorized                 2.0            2.1            2.8            2.8            2.7            2.3            1.7            1.9       1.7               20.0
Towable               15.8          17.7          24.7          21.8          24.9          24.4          16.3          19.1      15.3             180.0
Total Units               17.8          19.8          27.5          24.6          27.6          26.7          18.0          21.0      17.0         -           -            -         200.0
Source: RVIA 2011                          
                           
Wholesale Unit Shipments 2011Q1     Q2     Q3     Q4     YTD
Δ% from Previous Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total
Motorized                          
Motorhome (Class A) 22.2% 10.0% 16.7% 0.0% 0.0% -8.3% -10.0% -15.4% -16.7%       -1.0%
Van Conversion (Class B) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0%       25.0%
Mini-Motorhome (Class C) 60.0% 0.0% 44.4% 15.4% -6.7% -9.1% -12.5% -33.3% -28.6%       1.2%
Motorized Total 33.3% 5.0% 27.3% 7.7% 0.0% -8.0% -10.5% -17.4% -15.0%       1.5%
Towables                          
Travel Trailers 9.5% -1.7% 17.9% 1.4% 13.2% -1.8% -13.5% 0.8% 6.3%       3.5%
5th Wheels 22.9% 4.3% 11.5% 0.0% 25.5% 8.5% 5.0% -3.9% -2.3%       7.8%
Folding Camper -18.2% -16.7% -26.3% -21.1% -6.3% -23.5% -18.2% 14.3% 0.0%       -16.0%
Truck Campers 0.0% -66.7% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 50.0% -33.3% 50.0%       4.5%
Towables Total 10.5% -2.2% 13.3% -0.9% 14.7% -0.8% -8.9% -0.5% 4.1%       3.3%
Total Units 12.7% -1.5% 14.6% 0.0% 13.1% -1.5% -9.1% -2.3% 1.8%       3.1%
Source: RVIA 2011                          
                           
Wholesale Unit Shipments 2011Q1     Q2     Q3     Q4     YTD
Δ% from Previous Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total
Motorized 33.3% 5.0% 27.3% 7.7% 0.0% -8.0% -10.5% -17.4% -15.0%       1.5%
Towable 10.5% -2.2% 13.3% -0.9% 14.7% -0.8% -8.9% -0.5% 4.1%       3.3%
Total Units 12.7% -1.5% 14.6% 0.0% 13.1% -1.5% -9.1% -2.3% 1.8%       3.1%
Source: RVIA 2011                          
 
RV Wholesale Unit Shipment History
Wholesale Unit Shipments                        AAGR '11     
(thousands) 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011F 1  Year 5 Year 10 Year
Motorized                            
Motorhome (Class A)    33.4    39.6    41.5    46.3    37.9    32.4    32.9    14.9      5.9       13.1       19.4 47.9% -9.8% -5.3%
Van Conversion (Class B)      2.6      2.8      2.1      2.5      2.6      2.8      3.1      1.9      1.2         1.6         1.8 10.1% -8.9% -3.8%
Mini-Motorhome (Class C)    13.2    18.0    18.3    23.0    20.9    20.9    19.4    11.5      5.8       10.5       12.3 17.4% -10.0% -0.7%
Motorized Total    49.2    60.4    61.9    71.8    61.4    56.1    55.4    28.3    12.9       25.2       33.5 32.8% -9.8% -3.8%
Towables                            
Travel Trailers  102.2  129.7  139.8  163.6  201.6  216.8  180.2  128.1  101.5     144.5     176.2 21.9% -4.1% 5.6%
5th Wheels    54.7    66.1    74.6    91.0    84.8    87.4    81.5    57.0    36.8       54.7       70.5 28.8% -4.2% 2.6%
Folding Camper    40.8    44.8    35.7    34.1    32.8    33.7    28.8    18.9    12.3       15.0       35.2 134.9% 0.9% -1.5%
Truck Campers      9.9    10.0      8.8      9.6      8.8      8.7      7.5      4.7      1.9         2.9         3.5 21.5% -16.5% -9.8%
Towables Total  207.6  250.6  258.9  298.3  328.0  346.6  298.0  208.7  152.5     217.1     285.4 31.4% -3.8% 3.2%
Total Units  256.8  311.0  320.8  370.1  389.4  402.7  353.4  237.0  165.4     242.3     318.8 31.6% -4.6% 2.2%
Source: RVIA 2011, RV Investor                            
Source: RVIA 2011