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RVIA Reports Wholesale Shipments for June
 
The Recreational Vehicle Industry Association reported wholesale shipments of 15,700 units in June, down 33.2% from the same period in 2008. While RV sales continue to be down significantly year-on-year, we continue to signs of a bottom in wholesale shipments as year-on-year losses continue to lessen. June had an uncharacteristically strong uptick from May.

According to the RVIA: "As the current recession is expected to affect all sectors of the economy, RV shipments are expected to be lower in 2009 as well. Credit restrictions are causing RV buyers to delay purchases and RV dealers to keep inventories low. Sales in 2009 will be affected by stringent credit standards, falling employment, and continued declines in household wealth and home prices. Dr. Curtin predicts 2009 shipments will total 130,100." We have seasonally spread the shipments over twelve months (see chart below) and compare it with actual shipments from 2006 through 2008.

RV Investor has forecast wholesale shipments below 100,000 in 2009 making it the worst year since 1980. That translates to a retail sales value of below $5 billion, well below the industry peak of $14.7 billion of 2006, assuming average sales prices remain flat. However, the industry seems to be hanging much tougher than we forecasted. Sometimes it's great to be wrong!

  
 
RV Wholesale Unit Shipments 2009
  2009 Q1 Q2     Q3     Q4     YTD
RV Wholesale Units (K) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total
Motorized                          
Motorhome (Class A)        0.4       0.3       0.4       0.3        0.4       0.4                      2.2
Van Conversion (Class B)        0.1        -         0.1       0.1        0.1       0.1                      0.5
Mini-Motorhome (Class C)        0.2       0.4       0.2       0.6        0.7       0.5                      2.6
Motorized Total        0.7       0.7       0.7       1.0        1.2       1.0        -           -           -           -          -          -            5.3
Towables                          
Travel Trailers        4.3       6.2       7.7       7.9        7.9      10.1                    44.1
5th Wheels        1.4       2.4       2.8       2.9        2.7       3.1                    15.3
Folding Camper        0.8       0.9       1.1       1.3        1.3       1.3                      6.7
Truck Campers        0.1       0.1       0.2       0.2        0.2       0.2                      1.0
Towables Total        6.6       9.6      11.8      12.3      12.1      14.7        -           -           -           -          -          -          67.1
RV Total Units 2009         7.3      10.3      12.5      13.3       13.3      15.7          -             -             -             -            -            -           72.4
                           
  2009 Q1     Q2     Q3     Q4     YTD
RV Wholesale Units (K) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total
Motorized        0.7       0.7       0.7       1.0        1.2       1.0        -           -           -           -          -          -            5.3
Towable        6.6       9.6      11.8      12.3      12.1      14.7        -           -           -           -          -          -          67.1
Total Units 2009         7.3      10.3      12.5      13.3       13.3      15.7          -             -             -             -            -            -           72.4
Source: RVIA 2009                          
                           
                           
Δ% from Previous Year 2009 Q1     Q2     Q3     Q4     YTD
RV Wholesale Units (K) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total
Motorized                          
Motorhome (Class A) -77.8% -83.3% -82.6% -83.3% -66.7% -71.4%             -78.6%
Van Conversion (Class B) -50.0% -100.0% -50.0% -66.7% -50.0% -50.0%             -61.5%
Mini-Motorhome (Class C) -84.6% -73.3% -88.2% -68.4% -46.2% -50.0%             -70.1%
Motorized Total -78.8% -80.0% -83.3% -75.0% -55.6% -61.5%             -73.9%
Towables                          
Travel Trailers -66.4% -58.1% -51.6% -52.4% -41.5% -23.5%             -49.2%
5th Wheels -76.3% -64.7% -62.2% -59.2% -55.0% -43.6%             -60.5%
Folding Camper -65.2% -55.0% -45.0% -58.1% -43.5% -27.8%             -50.4%
Truck Campers -83.3% -80.0% -66.7% -66.7% -60.0% -50.0%             -68.8%
Towables Total -69.4% -60.2% -54.4% -55.1% -45.7% -29.7%             -52.8%
RV Total Units -70.7% -62.7% -58.5% -57.6% -46.8% -33.2%             -55.4%
                           
  2009 Q1     Q2 Q3   Q3     Q4     YTD
RV Wholesale Units (K) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total
Motorized -78.8% -80.0% -83.3% -75.0% -55.6% -61.5%             -73.9%
Towable -69.4% -60.2% -54.4% -55.1% -45.7% -29.7%             -52.8%
Total Units -70.7% -62.7% -58.5% -57.6% -46.8% -33.2%             -55.4%
Source: RVIA 2009                          
 
 
RV Wholesale Unit Shipments 1995 - 2008
   Calendar Year       Annual Growth Rate '08 
RV Wholesale Units (K) 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 1  Year 5 Year 10 Year
Motorized                                  
Motorhome (Class A)      33.0      36.5      37.6      42.9      49.4      41.0      33.4      39.6      41.5      46.3      37.9      32.4      32.9      14.9 -54.7% -18.5% -10.0%
Van Conversion (Class B)       4.1       4.1       3.8       3.6       3.6       3.4       2.6       2.8       2.1       2.5       2.6       2.8       3.1       1.9 -38.7% -2.0% -6.2%
Mini-Motorhome (Class C)      15.7      14.7      13.6      17.0      18.6      16.5      13.2      18.0      18.3      23.0      20.9      20.9      19.4      11.5 -40.7% -8.9% -3.8%
Motorized Total      52.8      55.3      55.0      63.5      71.6      60.9      49.2      60.4      61.9      71.8      61.4      56.1      55.4      28.3 -48.9% -14.5% -7.8%
Towables                                  
Travel Trailers      75.3      75.4      78.8      98.6    117.5    114.5    102.2    129.7    139.8    163.6    201.6    216.8    180.2    128.1 -28.9% -1.7% 2.7%
5th Wheels      45.9      48.5      52.8      56.5      60.5      62.3      54.7      66.1      74.6      91.0      84.8      87.4      81.5      57.0 -30.1% -5.2% 0.1%
Folding Camper      61.1      57.3      57.6      63.3      60.1      51.3      40.8      44.8      35.7      34.1      32.8      33.7      28.8      18.9 -34.4% -11.9% -11.4%
Truck Campers      11.9      11.0      10.3      10.8      11.5      11.1       9.9      10.0       8.8       9.6       8.8       8.7       7.5       4.7 -37.3% -11.8% -8.0%
Towables Total    194.2    192.2    199.5    229.2    249.6    239.2    207.6    250.6    258.9    298.3    328.0    346.6    298.0    208.7 -30.0% -4.2% -0.9%
RV Total Units    247.0    247.5    254.5    292.7    321.2    300.1    256.8    311.0    320.8    370.1    389.4    402.7    353.4    237.0 -32.9% -5.9% -2.1%
                                   
   Calendar Year       Annual Growth Rate '08 
RV Wholesale Units (K) 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 1  Year 5 Year 10 Year
Motorized      52.8      55.3      55.0      63.5      71.6      60.9      49.2      60.4      61.9      71.8      61.4      56.1      55.4      28.3 -48.9% -14.5% -7.8%
Towable    194.2    192.2    199.5    229.2    249.6    239.2    207.6    250.6    258.9    298.3    328.0    346.6    298.0    208.7 -30.0% -4.2% -0.9%
Total Units    247.0    247.5    254.5    292.7    321.2    300.1    256.8    311.0    320.8    370.1    389.4    402.7    353.4    237.0 -32.9% -5.9% -2.1%
Source: RVIA 2008                                  
Source: RVIA 2009